WCR: Weekend Crypto Market Sees Strong Rebound, Market Focused on This Week's CPI Data and Institutional Demand
BlockBeats News, August 11th. QCP released its daily market observation, stating, "During the low-liquidity weekend period, the crypto market saw a strong rebound, with Bitcoin breaking through $122,000, approaching its all-time high, completely recovering from last week's decline. Ethereum performed remarkably, rising 21% in the past seven days, breaking through $4,300 for the first time and hitting a new high since 2021.
Since mid-July, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has significantly increased. Therefore, today's outperformance in the crypto market aligns with the overall trend of rising risk appetite. The U.S. stock market rebounded close to its historical high after a brief pullback following last week's job data release, almost ignoring the impact of new tariffs and macro uncertainty.
Under strong bullish momentum, the market's short-term focus is now on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released on Tuesday. The market generally expects the year-on-year inflation rate to rise by 10 basis points to 2.8%. If the data is below expectations, it may further solidify the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, especially after several Fed officials recently turned dovish, making a rate cut almost a certainty. Whether this could drive crypto assets to new highs remains to be seen.
Conversely, if the CPI data is higher than expected, the upward trend may pause, and the crypto market will consolidate along with the broader market. As a result, some traders are starting to hedge event risk, with increased demand for Bitcoin put options in the $115,000 to $118,000 range to protect against a sudden downturn. These defensive actions coexist with buyers repositioning at the top to purchase call options. It is expected that the front-end volatility will remain high before the data is released. If Bitcoin fails to effectively break through resistance afterward, the volatility may narrow.
As Bitcoin approaches its all-time high, institutional demand and spot ETF inflows will be key areas of focus. While the price is in a critical resistance range, partial profit-taking may occur prior to the CPI release. However, the market has recently managed to absorb selling pressure from 'whales' without losing momentum, further supporting our structural bullish view."
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